- Title: Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled
- Author: Joeri Rogelj et al.
- Published: Nature Climate Change (2015)
The famously debated 2-degree goal is set based on a carbon budget, which has not been presented as a single number. There are mainly three types of carbon budgets: a) budget for CO2-induced warming only, b) threshold exceedance budgets (to calculate multi-gas warming), and c) threshold avoidance budgets. These different approaches, coupled with various uncertainties accompanying model simulations under a number of scenarios, lead to the conclusion: the scientifically most robust number (a) is not be sufficient in the real world, and eventually non-CO2 gases should be addressed as well.
Terms: the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon (TCRE), threshold exceedance budgets (TEBs), threshold avoidance budgets (TABs)